What to Expect In 2018

Many things will happen, but it can be summed into the following general statement “more challenging year ahead and beyond“, confirmed on 01/23/2018.

  1. On the demand side: Less resources are available for degree seekers.
  2. On the supply side: Accumulation of excess supply will continue & declining resources (01/25/2018).
  3. For Higher Ed institutions: Declining (1/16/18) or tougher (1/18/18) state funding (01/25/2018) regulation (1/25/2018). Note the date added when our prediction is confirmed).

These two main market forces will clean the closet which has been so cluttered due to BAU/status-quo (SQ) attitude which has long characterized the whole system.  The clean up will lead to:

  1. Stricter regulations on both federal and state funding.
  2. More non state-owned college closures, restructures & mergers.
  3. State will consolidate more state-owned colleges under a single roof, eliminating wasteful management and other redundant positions.
  4. Risk of college employees lay-off (1/19/18) will increase.
  5. Increase public monitoring & scrutiny on accreditation agencies’ quality work.
  6. To some degree: tuition-reduction price war will intensify.
  7. A bit late, but increasing use of IRI V.1.  However, the use of analytics alone (IRI V.1) no longer will produce best optimal results, unless move on to IRI V.2.
  8. Excess demand for professionals with IRI expertise will increase tremendously.

Unfortunately, only a handful or none of the current institutions will change, for the SQ  culture has infected the whole system for so long to a point-of-no return.  None of the participants/players in the system will care, so long their interests (translate $$ and benefits) will not be touched.  The only way to stop these cancerous cells from spreading is by enforcing a combination of the invisible hand, further reduction or harsher on federal and state funding.  The institutions will not make any voluntary & significant efforts to transform themselves for there is no real incentive for them to do so.  The source of change should come from outside such as fed or state. As Hukill statement says, the change is necessary so that they (the colleges) are able to live up their mission.  Therefore, the students can take the right courses, reduce their debts and graduate on time”.  Her statement explicitly reflects and reaffirms US higher ed institutions’ failures and perhaps, implicitly say accreditations’ agency sub-par past quality work.  Sad! Very sad!

Happy New Year 2018!!

 

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