Again, We Are Correct: Traders Cashed-in

At early trading today, the Association has predicted that the DOW may potentially turn red despite the good news on the GDP due to profit taking. At one point, NASDAQ shot-up to over 200 points before it was red by 77 points and the DOW lost by 237 after the market closed. Wanna to guess what will happen tomorrow? Traditionally, it will be red on Friday. Will it bloody read tomorrow then?

Disclaimer, the Association does not suggest to anyone to make any move or any trade or investing strategies in all forms.

Strong Employment Causes Positive GDP Growth

Needless to say, using the logic from Econ 101 college course, one might be able to predict that a US strong labor market will have positive immediate impacts on the US economy. These positive effects are (1). GDP grows positively; (2). Estimated corporate’s bottom line will be better. As results, one will see the DOW turns green in the past a couple of weeks (in the second and third week of July, 2023). Right at this moment, no strong and obvious symptoms that will reverse the moves. However, traders will surely cash-in or taking profit. This will come sooner or later. Just be watchful!!

Disclaimer: This post does not suggest any particular trading strategies to anyone in the stock market or any action related to financial matters.

Congrats Student Loans Borrowers

Ten years ago, the Association has completed analyses on student loan issues and their impacts to the welfare of the average Americans. Data have shown, Uncle Sam can not afford to keep increasing the college tuition, and, at the same time dump all the college inefficiency to the young Americans to bare the spending sprees through their shoulders. However, certain color in the isle just does not have enough sense and urgency to see what the young and working class in America have to suffer. Because of the loans that they have to take, and the interest and other financial punishments they have to endure. It is not because the other color is brainless or incompetent. Rather, it is because they just do not care. Even this side of the isle sues the administration that tries to ease the young and working class’ burdens. To make it more heavier, this color was supported by the high court to form a percent storm. Now that we learned new policy was crafted to help the student borrowers. With this new development, one can predict what will be the results of 2024 big dance. Congrats America!!

Where is Our Wisdom Coming From?

Many readers ask why AAEA was able to predict many events correctly? It must have the wisdom on doing that. The answer is clear. We use data, and set aside political interests. The Association uses logic to unveil many stories behind the data. One plus one will never be 3. It never defies the mathematical logic and common knowledge. On the other hand, politics, self-interests, group interests, short-term goals, and lobbyists will tweak common logic to fit their group-interests which are often not-in-the-best of public interests. The law makers need to start operate or behave for the interest of their constituents–not the lobbyists, or group or personal interest. Take an example what the US House and Senate public policy has made on students loans forgiveness. The question is simple. Is the rejection of the students loans forgiveness consistent with the US public interest? By now the US public and all student loans borrowers have to keep in mind when they go to the poll in future election.

Is The American Education At Risk? (Part 4)

There are a couple of big words during the press conference, and one of them is supply-chain that will be structured within the following conditions or pre-req:

  1. The supply chain will be built within the bloc member countries.
  2. It will be developed based on the Ricardian concept of free-trade.

Contrary to what has happened in the past, in this new-world partnerships, the so called supply chain no longer is based on low-labor wages, but to membership. Learning from the past, country like China has the low labor cost, but the country philosophy no longer fit well with the West. In other words, the West is hopeful that after the Chinese government under Deng Xio Ping opened the door to the Western countries, the Chinese government will be more opened. It did, until after the recent development that showed otherwise.

Under the new partnership, the democratic bloc will work within its members, and economic prosperity will be spread among them only. The real example of such a trade policy is in placed by the so-called “country of preference”. Consequently, economic growth will shift tremendously from China to other democratic countries. The big holes left by China can be filled pretty fast by other countries that have the same potentials where their population resembled closely that of China’s. In particular, from the countries in Asia.

What does it means for China? It can shift its trade partnership not only among its bloc countries, but also to others so-called non-alliance countries. What does it mean for the US? Under this new development, the US has to work hard to improve its education system. It has the resource to do so–what it lack however, is the coherent partnerships among the stakeholders. In particular, among parents, students, school administrators, the executive branch as well as the lawmakers in the Hill. Each element needs to understand what are its unique roles to make this to happen. For example, if one plan to prepare a hamburger for dinner–she or he should have the other necessary ingredients. Having the bunch alone will not make a hamburger. Likewise, having the beef patty alone without the bunch will not make a hamburger either. It is a join-effort, and no one can do it alone. Not even the executive branch and the example for it is pretty clear on the case of student loans forgiveness initiative. The plan is in limbo because it got sued from many parties. The competitor-country-bloc know exactly this play book and they will make every efforts in their disposal to fail the US education system.

Is The American Education At Risk? (Part 3)

The Association has laid-out the background information on such important topic. While the US legislative branch is divided by the colors, the executive branch has made important steps to put the ground work to make the US less dependent on the competitors. It started with the less-dependent on oil commodity, and recently its break away from the supply-chain that has been relied heavily in the past. On Fridays, March 24, 2023, the current administration has worked closely with its neighboring country to fill the broken supply-chain. During the press-conference, it is clear that the new-world-passage has been established and introduced. Two block-of-country were formed, and the world back to the cool war–a new cool war where the world is divided into either Democracy or Authoritarian country (Neo-authoritarian-one party system). It is interesting to note that the meeting of the two leaders of the free-world occurred a day after the two most powerful totalitarian countries ended their owned meetings. Is this coincident? The answer is no, it is the counter balance and the speedy answers of the free-world. The world has seen that the two countries are ruled under one-party system. However, the recent development showdown only confirmed further that the “Son-of Heaven” can only partner with other country that embraced the similar system. What will be the impacts to US education system under such a new development in geopolitics. The answer is huge–which will be discussed in part 4.

Is The American Education At Risk? (Part 2)

Readers will understand part 2, after reading the part 1. Discussed in the first part, and under the “Son of Heaven” Philosophy, it is natural from China to think that every Han is part of the system and apparatus of the emperor–translated in the modern world is the head of the party. Therefore, many cases are found in the US, where college professors directly or indirectly are seen of taking temporary leave from the mother-land, and if the time has arrived, they will be called to go back to serve the emperor. So, make no surprise if the emperor have sent so many of its apparatus to study abroad, and this policy has been so successful to bring the country making the jump to be the second-largest economic power in the world. Economic prosperity leads to advancements in the STEM areas as well.

Therefore, if the US wants to keep its high standard-of-living, it should restart from improving its school system; and the politicians have to make such a long-run nation’s objective to become a priority. From the reality that one can see, it seems that this becomes an impossible mission. Has anyone thought that the situation is also a result of the competitors who try to weaken the US? If the colors become the divider factors, instead of the unifying elements then soon the competitors will prevail, in facts they have. The competitors not just use colors, but also in all fronts such as drugs and the beauty of diversity to weaken the country.

Is The American Education At Risk? (Part 1)

According to the following article, it is. This article stresses the importance role of the policy makers in the Hill to shape the American education, but the author may not think they have done enough. The magnitude of the risk is even greater today compared to decades ago. The ordinary citizens in the US have noticed that many product sold at the groceries stores were made from other countries. The import substitution, free-trade and competitive advantages ideas are so popular decades ago, and now it is fair to evaluate, if this policy makes the US better-off. One cannot deny that the US has benefitted by adopting such trade policy, at least in the short-run. However, what is the side effects of such a policy. One thing for sure in that the exporting countries who have the labor or wage comparative advantage against the US became the most important US trading partners (competitors in the long-run). While other countries in Asia has benefitted from free-trade, China becomes a country that has benefitted most. Parallel with its economic growth, this country is becoming competitor in many fronts and therefore change the geo-politics balance in the world. It started to expand it territorial if necessary through force. Therefore, make a claim, and created border dispute with its neighboring countries. Noticeably in the South China sea. What makes China’s ability to make the leap? Education is one of the factors, plus its philosophy or belief that China is the center of the world. “It implies, first, an ethnic Han polity, which is inherently authoritarian. Second, it requires that a single powerful monarch, the Chinese emperor (“Son of Heaven”) should rule the entire civilized world — which by definition should be unified under the emperor’s control so that disorder and chaos may be avoided, and reason and just rule may triumph” quoted from The Diplomat (https://thediplomat.com/2018/10/the-world-according-to-china/)

Let Us Be Fair: Survey on Impacts of Social Media Apps on Students’ Learning Outcomes

Recently, all media reported of how a social media apps CEO was grilled in the Hill. From the Q&A, one cannot see data that support the claims that the apps does or does not affect the users. Reported recently that the apps has negative impacts, especially among the younger generation. Click here for reading the report. However, the story was quoted from just one-person. As a Data Scientist, one needs not to make any decision or conclusion only based on limited observation for it is practically impossible to justify and make strategic decisions because of one observation. In order to find better answers on the issue, AAEA is conducting a survey, and we invite everyone all over the world to participate by clicking the following link:

==THE IMPACTS OF SOCIAL MEDIA SURVEY==

Thank you for your participation. The results will be shared on this site.

US Higher Education Institutions’ Financial Stress Tests: Debt to Equity Ratio

The IRI or EA (Education Analytics) is a great approach to study all aspects of Colleges’ operations–not just teaching or learning outcomes, but also institutional financial aspects. Never been shared before, how financial strengths can be measured by IRI/EA, but in this site. Exactly ten yeas ago (March 23, 2013), the Association has completed and shared these studies to test the US higher education institutions’ financial strengths which is equivalent to the required stress tests on the Banking industry after 2018 financial crisis hit the country. To accomplish such research tasks, AAEA first pulled the college financial information along with other data found at NCES database that covered 2008 through 2010. The data set consist of 16729 observations and 63 variables or fields–which after cleaning generate the following results (please click here to access the results). This example, one again demonstrates why higher education institutions in the US is better-off to have someone who is well rounded and capable to carry out the analyses. An expert that has various business and economic knowledge along with solid statistical analyses and econometric modeling experience will help the institutions to study their historical internal data which can be utilized in making strategic decisions. Data visualization is helpful, but no longer enough in today’s world marked with hyper-competition to attract the best brains in the world (not just in the US), as well as donation dollars.